OwlCyberSecurity - MANAGER

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Envelope-to: suzana@digitalaesthetics.org
Delivery-date: Sat, 15 Jul 2023 00:31:20 -0400
Message-ID: <m171.1899465732.8022001689395467642.JavaMail.tomcat@web-core2-035>
Date: Sat, 15 Jul 2023 00:31:07 -0400 (EDT)
From: Perry Marshall <google@perrymarshall.com>
To:  <suzana@digitalaesthetics.org>
Subject: Perry Marshall Minute: Getting Gumball Geeky
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                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">Suzana Vrhovac,</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">Yesterday I was talking ab=
out deciding how much to spend to acquire a customer. </p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>You can go more negati=
ve and play a long-term game; you can spend less and play a short-term game=
.... But remember, if you spend too much you never get the money back and i=
f you spend too little you never get any customers.</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>How do you decide?&nbs=
p;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">Your decision making shoul=
d be something like this:</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>Suppose the average is=
 6.5 purchases per customer (650/100). So actual purchase history (not theo=
ry) has told you that the average customer buys 6.5 times.</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">So you figure out how much=
 gross profit you make on each sale and maybe you decide you can spend 75% =
of the entire first purchase price and still come out OK (depending on your=
 margins).</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">Now this is where somethin=
g a little more subtle comes in because the average of 6.5 purchases does n=
ot come from your "average customer."&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">Your typical customer only=
 buys 3 times.&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">So now you want to ask thi=
s question:</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>How many purchases doe=
s a customer who is barely in the top 20% (but NOT a superfan) make?</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>This is where my 80/20=
 curve comes in super handy and it's pretty easy to figure out.</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>Let's say you have a l=
ot of historical data. You have 100 customers and they have made 650 purcha=
ses total. So you go to "specify total output of all members" and enter 100=
 members and 650 output:</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>This is what you get:<=
/p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>The bottom 15 customer=
s only bought once and the #1 customer bought 92 times.</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>What is the customer a=
t the top 20% mark (80th percentile) doing?</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>The answer is: they bu=
y 7 times.&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br><strong>This 80th perc=
entile guy is the one who is your "typical" customer =E2=80=93 the one you =
actually pay attention to and base your business on</strong>.&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>This is the customer w=
ho comes to your restaurant from time to time but not every other day.&nbsp=
;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br><em>You can't base you=
r marketing decisions on top 1-5% superfans, even though you try as hard as=
 you can to serve them</em>.</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>But let's say you don'=
t have a lot of historical data. Let's say you started a subscription progr=
am 3 months ago. You got 100 customers and 20 have dropped out. What can yo=
u expect?</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>What you need to do is=
 group them into cohorts. Which people joined in month 1, which ones joined=
 in month 2, which ones joined in month 3.</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>Then you ask:</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>How many people who jo=
ined in month 1 dropped out before the 30 day mark?</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>Let's say you lost 8.<=
/p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>Then for right now you=
 assume you're losing 8% per month.</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>So month 2 =3D 92% of =
month 1 (because 100%-8%=3D92%)</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>Month 3 =3D 92% of mon=
th 2 =3D 92% of 92% =3D 85%</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>Month 4 =3D 92% of 92%=
 of 92% =3D 78%</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><br>You can throw this on =
a spreadsheet and figure out exactly how long it takes to lose half your cu=
stomers. That is the "half-life" of a customer. So if half-life is 5 months=
, then now you can say "the average customer stays 5 months so if a subscri=
ption is $100 per month, then one customer is worth $500 so now I can decid=
e how much money I'm willing to put in the magic gumball machine to get one=
 customer out."</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">Seize the day,&nbsp;</p>=
=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">Perry</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">PS: The Perry Marshall Min=
ute is the daily heartbeat of Planet Perry. Short messages about the founda=
tional principles of our world (<a data-tag-id=3D"5474" data-u-link-value=
=3D"eyJuYW1lIjoiY2FtcGFpZ25fbGlua190eXBlIiwiYXR0cnMiOnsiaHJlZiI6Int7Y2FtcGF=
pZ25saW5rfX0iLCJ0YXJnZXQiOiJfYmxhbmsiLCJkYXRhLWNhbXBhaWduLWxpbmstaWQiOiJ7e2=
NhbXBhaWdubGlua319IiwiZGF0YS10YWctaWQiOiJ7e3RhZ319In0sInZhbHVlcyI6eyJjYW1wY=
WlnbmxpbmsiOiJLNDA4MyIsInRhZyI6W3sidmFsdWUiOiI1NDc0IiwibGFiZWwiOiIqKlJlY2Vu=
Y3kgLS0mZ3Q7IEZyZXNoIENsaWNrIn1dfX0=3D" data-campaign-link-id=3D"K4083" tar=
get=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://m171.keap-link014.com/v2/click/a39b56d4aae5e=
8b68841720ad7d373df/eJyNkMtqwzAQRf9Fi67sOHLzNJgSQgjGaRalXQchjxtRvZBGdUPwv1d=
2S1YpdHvm6ujOXAmCZhqrhhRE0SUlCXHAhRWgcWs0Mj7OKKVrOl0lRAr9sXcmWFJc77y9jQeYLx=
br1SIheLEQI68vm21dHfenQ3WsY9YyFz_5h4fSfD6fr2Y30-55Ux1I3_-pBiVw9xntnhToAgxLN=
SIuhm9OxvwZ0foiy7qum1hw7qKY82cm5YQblbVBa5Ct-MqeAqqTN8FxKIVugxdGe9Piw8BVVAZV=
gmJCjoAzZZl416VVKvXgBPiRIzhVWme8jQV-EI-njfXG5ChI82n-mE6XKZ3F_sxa0M3v_Wu4kKJ=
l0kP_DdMNke4=3D" rel=3D"noopener" class=3D"">Tactical Triangle</a>, <a data=
-u-link-value=3D"eyJuYW1lIjoiY2FtcGFpZ25fbGlua190eXBlIiwiYXR0cnMiOnsiaHJlZi=
I6Int7Y2FtcGFpZ25saW5rfX0iLCJ0YXJnZXQiOiJfYmxhbmsiLCJkYXRhLWNhbXBhaWduLWxpb=
mstaWQiOiJ7e2NhbXBhaWdubGlua319IiwiZGF0YS10YWctaWQiOiJ7e3RhZ319In0sInZhbHVl=
cyI6eyJjYW1wYWlnbmxpbmsiOiJLNDA4MCIsInRhZyI6W3sidmFsdWUiOiI1NDc0IiwibGFiZWw=
iOiIqKlJlY2VuY3kgLS0mZ3Q7IEZyZXNoIENsaWNrIn1dfX0=3D" data-tag-id=3D"5474" d=
ata-campaign-link-id=3D"K4080" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://m171.keap-=
link014.com/v2/click/6c7816efb57429c799997e6a9ffef26f/eJyNkUtrwzAQhP-LDj3Fs=
eXGeRhMCSEE4zSH0p6DkDeNqF5I6xoT8t-7cUtOLfQ6O_tpZnVhCFZYrFtWMsMXnE1YAKm8Aosb=
Z1HIccY5X_FsOWFa2Y9dcJ1n5eWX3fv4Jubz-WpJOzh4IMvry3rT1IfdcV8fGvJ6EeiRf3A4z4u=
iWM7upO3zut6z6_VPNBiF20-iR1Zi6OBWqlVUDN-CJv8Z0ccyTfu-n3oIYTAixLPQeiqdSS30CU=
UTKkZhJaRPHZpjdF2QUCl76qJyNroTPtx0Q-DOVGCE0qMghfFCvdvKG5NECAriqCMEU_ngoqcY3=
5KkA1PI0TkCkjzLH5NskfAZtRDeg21_fqGBgZUnoSNcvwBBmJQk" rel=3D"noopener" class=
=3D"">The 7 Steps to Entrepreneurial Freedom</a>, and <a data-tag-id=3D"547=
4" data-u-link-value=3D"eyJuYW1lIjoiY2FtcGFpZ25fbGlua190eXBlIiwiYXR0cnMiOns=
iaHJlZiI6Int7Y2FtcGFpZ25saW5rfX0iLCJ0YXJnZXQiOiJfYmxhbmsiLCJkYXRhLWNhbXBhaW=
duLWxpbmstaWQiOiJ7e2NhbXBhaWdubGlua319IiwiZGF0YS10YWctaWQiOiJ7e3RhZ319In0sI=
nZhbHVlcyI6eyJjYW1wYWlnbmxpbmsiOiJLNDA4NCIsInRhZyI6W3sidmFsdWUiOiI1NDc0Iiwi=
bGFiZWwiOiIqKlJlY2VuY3kgLS0mZ3Q7IEZyZXNoIENsaWNrIn1dfX0=3D" data-campaign-l=
ink-id=3D"K4084" target=3D"_blank" href=3D"https://m171.keap-link014.com/v2=
/click/954107207ecd6d23760f6306d7009d66/eJyNkE1rg0AQhv_LHnrS6NqYREFKCCGIaQ6=
lPYetjs2S_WJ3rEjwv3e1JacWen3m3WffmRtBUExh2ZCcSLqmJCAWam44KNxphayeZ5TSjMabgA=
iurgerO0Py2y9v7-MJJqtVlsUBwcGAj7y-bHdVeTqcj-Wp8lnDrP_kHx5KkzRNN8u7af-8LY9kH=
P9Ug-S4__R2R3K0HUxLNdwvhm9W-PwF0bg8ivq-XxiwdpDMugsTYlFrGW3iJA7ftb5GTx3Ks9Od=
raHgqu0c18rpFh8mLr2ykwVIxsUMaiYN4x-qMFKGDiwHN3MEKwtjtTO-wDeq_Wl9vTk5C8IkTh7=
DeB3Spe_PjAHV_Ny_goHkLRMOxi8aDJC8" rel=3D"noopener" class=3D"">80/20 Sales =
&amp; Marketing</a>). Every message will contain a truth, tactic, or testim=
onial to make this the most valuable =E2=80=9Cminute=E2=80=9D you spend eve=
ry day.</p>=20
                </div> </td>=20
              </tr>=20
             </tbody>=20
            </table> =20
           </div>=20
          </div>=20
         </div>  =20
        </div>=20
       </div>=20
      </div>=20
      <div id=3D"u_row_1" class=3D"u-row-container u_row v-row-padding--ver=
tical v-row-background-image--outer v-row-background-color" style=3D"paddin=
g: 0px;background-color: transparent">=20
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p: break-word;word-wrap: break-word;word-break: break-word;background-color=
: transparent;">=20
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se: collapse;display: table;width: 100%;height: 100%;background-color: tran=
sparent;">  =20
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yle=3D"box-sizing: border-box; height: 100%; padding: 0px;border-top: 0px s=
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wrap:break-word;word-break:break-word;padding:10px 20px 20px;font-family:he=
lvetica,sans-serif;" align=3D"left">=20
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ght v-font-family v-font-size" style=3D"font-size: 15px; line-height: 150%;=
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                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;">&nbsp;</p>=20
                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><em>***NOTE: This email ad=
dress isn't monitored! If you need help, please email: <a data-u-link-value=
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ns-serif;" align=3D"left">=20
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space: 0pt;vertical-align: top;border-top: 0px solid #BBBBBB;-ms-text-size-=
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lapse !important;vertical-align: top;font-size: 0px;line-height: 0px;mso-li=
ne-height-rule: exactly;-ms-text-size-adjust: 100%;-webkit-text-size-adjust=
: 100%"> <span style=3D"">&nbsp;</span> </td>=20
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               <td class=3D"v-container-padding-padding" style=3D"overflow-=
wrap:break-word;word-break:break-word;padding:10px;font-family:helvetica,sa=
ns-serif;" align=3D"left">=20
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ght v-font-family v-font-size" style=3D"font-size: 15px; line-height: 150%;=
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                 <p style=3D"line-height: 150%;"><em>Not interested in this=
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lIjoiY2FtcGFpZ25fbGlua190eXBlIiwiYXR0cnMiOnsiaHJlZiI6Int7Y2FtcGFpZ25saW5rfX=
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re</a> to be removed from the <em>Perry Marshall Minute</em>&nbsp;series.</=
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